How to distinguish good trends from bad.
Betting on trends: arguments for
In most cases, it repeats what happened more often before. This concept applies to a huge number of markets in bookmakers’ offices: parimatch india betting pure outcomes and totals, fouls and shots on goal, corner kicks and so on.
To prove it, we wait for three consecutive identical outcomes, and then bet on the fourth, when winning making a new bet “according to the trend” (if losing stop “loading” on this trend).
The average passability is 63.5% – if you play by this betting strategy are two 2 bets out of 3. The effect is enhanced when the teams are on the same side of interrelated trends. For example, when Arsenal began to concede a lot, and Liverpool began to score more than usual.
Every series will come to an end sooner or later
It is true, but until that moment, you have time to make a good profit on the trend (if we are talking about the long term). In the example we stopped betting at the first loss, but if we made another bet “downstream”, it would be more often successful than losing. So if you found a steady trend, but the first bet was unsuccessful – don’t get upset, it might be worth repeating the bet again.
A trend is not a trend
A proper match analysis involves a complex evaluation: it is impossible to consider separately the statistics of victories and defeats, goals scored and conceded, shots and xG statistics. Only the interaction of several trends will show the real picture.
The task is more difficult if the teams follow the opposite directions of the interrelated trends. For example, if Team A, which has scored 3 goals in 3 consecutive matches, plays away with Team B, which has not missed a single goal for the same 3 matches, a bet on the guests’ individual total turns into a “guessing game” – it is better to skip this match.
Influence of values and movements of odds
Here we can partially agree – with a 60% passability of bets you have to keep the average odds not lower than 1.67 (which does not happen, for example, in home matches of favorites). However, there are stable trends for outsiders. Underdogs in good form can extend the series in matches against top clubs.
It is impossible to follow trends blindly: you have to analyze each trend separately. Only by looking for the well-trends with the necessary average odds and passability the balance is maintained.